Southern Profile

Overview

The southernmost governorates of Iraq, particularly Basra, Thi-Qar, and Missan, are the scene of increasing environment degradation, climate-induced migration, economic insecurity, a lack of development, tribal conflict, criminal and political violence, and civil unrest. In-depth journalistic reporting and qualitative analysis have helped to delineate these trends and bring them to the fore, generating a greater interest among national and international stakeholders in seeking to sustainably address them.

As attention in Iraq shifts southward, however, little current data exists as to the magnitude or geographic prevalence of the issues raised above that could help inform priorities, interventions, policies, or advocacy, considering that the last representative data available for these governorates comes from 2012.

IOM and Social Inquiry designed this baseline profiling of Basra, Thi-Qar, and Missan governorates to fill this evidence gap, to avoid the potential for oversampling of vulnerable communities with multiple and overlapping assessments, and to enable as many stakeholders as possible to utilize not only the analysis presented herein, but the data itself for their own needs.

In focusing on a breadth of topics including population demographics, housing, access to services, socio-economic situation, agriculture, migration, wellbeing, governance, security, and social cohesion, our aim is to provide robust and relevant datasets and analyses that can serve as go-to sources of evidence to shape further in-depth research, analysis, and advocacy on specific issues, geographical areas, and/or population groups and guide the design, monitoring, and evaluation of interventions and policies to best meet the needs of people in these fragile environments.

Methodology

This is a cross-sectional profiling study of three southern governorates in Iraq detailing population demographics, housing, access to services, socio-economic situation, agriculture, migration, wellbeing, governance, security, and social cohesion. It provides a demographically representative picture of households and individuals for each of the 18 districts in Basra, Thi-Qar, and Missan governorates, with further representative disaggregation by urban and rural households.

Key points to note:

Data collection, by IOM research field teams, took place between December 2021 and January 2022 and was stratified by district and location type (urban vs. rural), covering over 200 locations across governorates.

The total sample size is 3,904 household surveys and roster.

The survey included household modules (applicable to the overall household situation), a personal module (gathering perceptions of the respondent), and a roster module (collecting personal characteristics of each household member).

All survey respondents were 18 years of age or older at the time of data collection. Any data presented regarding individuals under the age of 18 comes from the household roster module.

Results are statistically representative at the governorate level with a 95% confidence interval and 4% margin of error and at the district level with a 95% confidence interval and a 7% margin of error.

Within each district, results are statistically representative for location type (urban/rural) and gender comparisons with a 95% confidence interval and a 10% margin of error.

Results shown in the top line dataset and dashboard below have been weighted by district population size, urban/rural distribution, and gender based on actual proportions available at Iraq’s Central Statistics Bureau (data from 2012).

The data here sets a baseline valid for up to the next two years and can serve as a tool for further in-depth analysis, program design, and advocacy.

Key Findings

Demographics: An urban and particularly young population

Based on 2012 data, the estimated combined population of Basra, Thi-Qar, and Missan is 5.3 million people.

The majority of residents in these three governorates live in urban environments compared to rural ones.

Data from this study highlight a particularly young populace with 40% aged 0-15 years, 30% aged 16-30 years, and 30% aged 31-99 years

Extended relative poverty, concentrated among individuals without formal education, social support reliant, female-headed, and rural households

Approximately 39% of households indicate not being able to make ends meet, falling within the lowest two tiers of self-reported affordability measures.

The poorest districts in this regard include Faw, Zubair, and Basra in Basra Governorate, Chibaysh in Thi-Qar Governorate, and Qalat Saleh and Kahlaa in Missan Governorate.

The household characteristics, listed in descending order of magnitude, associated with this poverty are having no formal education, relying on income from public and private social support, being female-headed, and finally, being rural.

Weak and unequal public service provision

There is general dissatisfaction among all residents regarding both the quality and quantity of public service provision. This dissatisfaction is highest in Thi-Qar Governorate overall.

It is also most pronounced when taking location type into account across governorates, with satisfaction in rural areas 10 points lower than that reported in urban areas overall.

Most households report access to domestic water supply, electricity access, and public health and public education services. The issues by far are less about the lack of provision per se than the cost and quality of provision. One exception to this is the spread absence of higher levels of education in rural areas

A safe daily life within a violent environment

Residents overwhelmingly report feeling safe in their neighborhoods or villages and in moving around freely. This holds true for those in urban and rural locations and for men and women as well.

At the same time, they also note a weak security environment surrounding them, given the high visibility and presence of firearms among civilians and in their exposure to security incidents.

In the majority of cases reported, this structural insecurity is linked to tribal conflicts and related gun violence considering the pervasive presence of weapons in community at large – again, in both urban and rural locations alike. This type of violence tends to emerge over social disputes and increasingly political ones as well as various tribes, security actors, political parties, and criminal networks compete for power.

Given this, some residents reported in the survey that they did not send their children to school alone for fear of them being entangled in a tribal dispute or shooting.

Recruitment into security forces is a feature in all districts, primarily among older men in relatively better off households

Security forces concentrate a sizeable proportion of employment available in rural areas particularly, but the frequency of enrollment is relatively similar between rural and urban locations overall across districts.

These forces serve as sources of employment for older men (36+ years) rather than younger men. Approximately 1 out of 5 men with employment at that age work in security forces.

Households with members in security forces tend not to be the most vulnerable in socio-economic terms.

The diminishing role of agriculture in rural livelihoods due to environmental degradation

Among rural households specifically, less than half are currently engaged in the agricultural sector (farming, livestock, or fishing) and only a minority fully rely on these activities for income; rather most rural households have alternative sources of income to supplement that coming from agriculture.

Rural areas of Thi-Qar and Missan governorates concentrate the bulk of agricultural activity, with a relatively small proportion reported among households in rural Basra.

Those currently engaged in farming or livestock overwhelming reported diminished production or herd as compared to five years ago.

The sector is significantly impacted by environmental degradation, with those who reported reduced activity and those who reported fully abandoning the sector citing the same factors, namely lack of water supply and related yield loss or livestock deaths.

The “new” and looming issue of unemployment especially among the young

The unemployment rate, calculated over the economically active population, is 24% and holds relatively steady between governorates, location types, and gender. The only factor that influences this rate is age.

Specifically, the unemployment rate among the young (those aged 16-30 years) is 36% compared to 10% among those over 30 years of age.

The young who are working tend to have less well-paid and less steady employment in daily labor as compared to their older counterparts who tend to hold salaried public sector posts, despite being more educated than older populations. This is especially acute among young women who are barely present in the workforce even though they are completing higher levels of education and who face significantly higher likelihood of unemployment if they do enter the labor market.

The generational gap in employment opportunities stem from a weak private sector (or agricultural sector in rural areas) that does not offer growth or new opportunities and a public sector unable to absorb the growing number of people entering the labor market as it has done at certain points since 2003.

This is a considerable concern given that 40% of the population is 15 years of age or lower. Every year a growing number of people will be seeking opportunities that at present are scarce at best and non-existent at worst for those eligible for them now.

Very localized (and contained) migration trends that are nonetheless shaping public consciousness

Approximately 3% of the households surveyed are migrant (i.e., moved across districts for reasons other than marriage or education). This magnitude is in line with other findings related to population movement in southern Iraq (see IOM DTM).

The vast majority of this movement takes place within the governorate, with intra-district migration the most common movement pattern reported.

The main drivers of this movement include lack of good living conditions in place of origin, unemployment in place of origin, and securing a new job in the destination location prior to moving there, respectively.

Migrant households tend to cluster in the same employment sectors as their non-migrant counterparts where they currently reside, namely government employment and daily labor.

Despite the relatively low rate of movement reported, depopulation is a major concern in rural areas of Missan and Thi-Qar governorates where one quarter of rural households name it as the top social concern they face.

A sizeable proportion overall expressed a preference to move from their current location to somewhere else in the governorate (likely within the district or to the capital) at some point in the future. Once again, a generational divide appears in this preference, with younger respondents (18-29 years of age) more inclined to this preference than older ones.

Urbanization and population growth are challenging formal land rights

Rapid urban expansion has led to a context overall where almost half of all households feature an informal housing, land, and property situation.

For those in irregular housing, the most common trend is to build homes on agricultural land or settle on public land, without official permission to do either.

Across governorates, Missan has the highest rates of housing informality in both rural and urban areas.

This situation overall does not necessarily equate to insecure tenure or eviction risk as only 3% of households across governorates report concern in this regard.

However, housing informality in general tends to correlate with weaker safety and lower wellbeing at the neighborhood level.

The main grievances in the community relate to structural issues such as state governance as well as a lack of job opportunities

Lack of government support, lack of opportunities, and corruption, respectively, are the top three issues residents are most upset about across governorates and location types. These grievances either individually or in combination were reported by the vast majority of households.

Among young men (aged 18-29), the main grievances tend to also focus on a lack of justice, local political parties, and targeting after 2019, in addition to the aforementioned ones. This likely connects to experiences of mass protests in recent years.

Within this social environment overall, residents have and continue exhibit moderate to high levels of participation in public affairs (i.e. expressing grievances or demands in public, on social media, by contacting a community leader or authority, etc.). Young men in particular are active in this regard, with a little over half indicating that they have participated in such activities in the past 12 months.

This is a realm however in which women do not seem to participate. Rather, they seem to be more engaged in civic activities such as volunteerism and charity work, but again at lower rates as compared to men. Actions in this regard traverse generations.

The best resolution for grievances reported overall are material and social investment in the districts (especially reported by rural respondent and as opposed to individual financial compensation or benefits), reforms to guarantee the non-repetition of the dynamics leading to grievances, and, to a lesser degree, criminal prosecutions of perpetrators. Of note is also the relatively sizeable proportion of respondents who indicate that that no resolution is possible, particularly in relation to corruption and local political parties.

A social environment characterized by low institutional and inter-personal trust

Overall trust in formal and customary institutions or actors working in the best interests of all residents is considerably low across governorates and location types.

The top-rated institutions or actors overall are religious leaders, tribal leaders, and security forces; but even here they generate only moderate support among the surveyed households. There is a gender divide here in that woman have significantly less trust in the aforementioned actors than men, which makes sense given religious, tribal, and security norms that tend to limit their representation and participation and may impact them in particularly negative ways.

These findings overall are concerning as low levels of institutional trust also tend to erode social cohesion and social capital.

Such erosion can be seen to a certain extent in the low levels of trust reported in others in the community, where over 40% of the sample overall indicate having little to no trust in others. This proportion jumps to between 55% and 60% when examining young people (both men and women aged 18-29 years old).

Reports

Climate of Fragility - Household Profiling in Basra, Thi-Qar and Missan

The main profiling report summarizes the most important findings for each thematic area covered by this profiling assessment of the south of Iraq as well as the methodology in more detail. Thematic publications go into more depth on key topics of interest for stakeholders.

Download Main Report Thematic Reports Forthcoming

About IOM Iraq

The International Organization for Migration (IOM) is committed to the principle that humane and orderly migration benefits migrants and society. As an intergovernmental organization, IOM acts with its partners in the international community to: assist in meeting the operational challenges of migration; advance understanding of migration issues; encourage social and economic development through migration; and uphold the human dignity and well-being of migrants.

IOM Iraq was established in 2003 and has built a strong network of staff, offices and logistics capacity. With more than 1,300 staff and main offices in Baghdad, Erbil, and Basra and 16 sub-offices in key locations, IOM works in cooperation with the Government of Iraq to provide support across all of Iraq’s 18 governorates. Within a fragile political, economic and security environment, IOM Iraq is addressing humanitarian needs, supporting reintegration of returning IDPs, and promoting stabilization of communities. To reduce risks and vulnerabilities of displaced and host communities in Iraq, IOM integrates humanitarian and development approaches and addresses the link between security and development using area-based, tailored approaches founded on strong data analysis.

https://iraq.iom.int
For more information, contact: iraqresearch@iom.int

About Social Inquiry

Social Inquiry is a not-for-profit research institution whose aim is to improve the impact and effectiveness of policies and interventions that seek to establish civic trust and repair the social fabric within and between fragile communities, and communities and the state. Its research focuses on three thematic rubrics: (i) social cohesion and fragility, (ii) transitional justice and reconciliation, and (iii) post-conflict political economy, exploring intersecting political, social, psychological, economic, environmental, and historical dimensions within these themes.

www.social-inquiry.org
For more information, contact: hello@social-inquiry.org